The Cut : The Cut - Autumn 2017
54 THE CUT Golf betting is great because you can choose when to bet – and knowing the right time to bet is crucial. If you fancy a long shot like Martin Kaymer, paying $81, I would back him pre-tournament because if he is leading after Round One his price would drop to something like $15-$21. Conversely, if you fancy Jason Day, paying $12, and he is leading after 18 holes, his price would become $5-$6 – a massive drop in value for Kaymer and much lesser drop on Day. Also, you don’t just have to pick the winner. There are options for top five, top 10, miss or make the cut, among many others. So now you have to choose the golfers that are going to put you right in among the action. I favour setting my budget and spreading it among a few options. Generally, I won’t take anyone paying under $12 pre- tournament and be prepared to lose a bit of value if they go low in the first round. Something to remember, too, using the Jason Day example: if he were four shots behind the leader after day one, his price would move out and provide a greater return if you still felt he had a chance. BETTING SUMMARY For simplicity’s sake, let’s assume I want to spend $100 on my Masters investments. It would look like this: Sergio Garcia $10 to win, to return $310 $25 top-five finish, to return $150 Henrik Stenson $5 to win, to return $130 $20 top-five finish, to return $100 Bill Haas $10 top-five finish, to return $250 $10 top-10 finish, to return $120 Rafael Cabrero Bello $10 top-five finish, to return $200 $10 top-10 finish, to return $100 I would reassess after the first two rounds, depending how my golfers were placed and maybe have a bet on DJ or Spieth if they were paying $10 or more and within striking distance. Imagine how exciting my Monday would be if Garcia was teeing off in the final group, Haas lying seventh and Cabrera Bello poised in 12th. Bring it on! Danny Willett celebrates with the Green Jacket after winning the Masters, 2016. VALUE BETS Henrik Stenson $26 Plays his best in the big tournaments and has five top-five finishes in majors the last four years, including a win at the Open Championship last year. Sergio Garcia $31 Has played Augusta 18 times and even though he has never won a major he has an incredible 21 top-10 finishes in his majors career. The Garcia I saw winning in Dubai a few weeks ago was the happiest I’ve seen and it looks like his putting is sorted out. Ricky Fowler $31 Comfortable winner at the Honda Classic, although he did have a jittery final round. Is prone to the occasional dose of the jitters. Don’t think he can win but a good top-five bet. ROUGHIES Bill Haas $126 While not long off the tee, he is one of the best scramblers on tour, which is a big help here. Has played Augusta seven times and made the cut in all of them, with a best finish of 12th two years ago. In his first six starts this year has finished top 20 in all of them. A great bet to feature towards the top of the leader board. Rafael Cabrero Bello $101 This well-travelled Spaniard provides great value for long-shot punters. Unbeaten in the Ryder Cup, 17th last year in his Masters debut, a rock-solid swing and decent lead-up form. Tiger Woods $51 What about Tiger? If he turns up, he is currently paying $51 and you could argue it should be more. We have seen glimpses of the brilliance he once offered but consistency is his biggest hurdle. Has the best pedigree in the field to win here but the feeling is he has been in the paddock too long to really make a charge. I’d love to be wrong. Betting odds subject to change, those stated are correct as at time of printing.
The Cut - Summer 2017
The Cut - Winter 2017